Is the positive illusion of overconfidence good for us, or does it lead to disaster?

 
“When I proclaimed that I was the Greatest of all Time, 
I believed in myself. And I still do.” 
– Muhammad Ali
“Confidence thus poses a major puzzle. On the one hand, overconfidence appears to be a widespread and powerful feature of human cognition, but on the other hand it appears to cause faulty assessments and major disasters. That makes little sense. Why would this kind of false belief survive in competition with accurate beliefs? How could it even have evolved in the first place?”

“Overconfidence may therefore be advantageous because it increases ambition, resolve, and persistence in many of life’s tasks - even if the price of maintaining this overconfidence is occasional disasters. Just as successful poker players must sometimes bluff the strength of their hand if they are to win, overconfident individuals may be able to outperform their rivals if they believe in themselves enough to keep going when others would give in.”
- Humans are overconfident creatures, which boosts our persistence, ambition, and drive—but can also lead to disasters. We can make such false beliefs work to our benefit, Seed Magazine>>
- Muhammad Ali poster at Allposters>>

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