We can analyze all we want, but ultimately it's a judgment call

Free-soloist rock climber John Bachar died after falling alone
“Ultimately all decisions are made on the basis of judgment. There is no other way; and there never will be. The question is whether these judgments are made in the fog of inadequate data, unclear and undefined issues or whether they can be made on the basis of adequate, reliable information, reliable experience and clear issues. In the end, analysis is but an aid to judgment – judgment is supreme.” 
– Katz and Kahn (1966) “Risk Management Keeps Aircraft Carrier Overhaul Planning on Schedule.” Naval Engineers Journal, October, pp. 13-24.

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